CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2020-11-29T13:24:00-CME-001)

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2020-11-30T21:35:44Z
## Message ID: 20201130-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20201129-AL-001).  Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A.  The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2020-12-02T22:37Z, OSIRIS-REx at 2020-11-30T19:37Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2020-11-30T19:37Z, and STEREO A at 2020-12-01T09:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a possible glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth.  Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2020-12-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).  
   

Updated CME parameters are (event upgraded/downgraded to O-type):

Start time of the event: 2020-11-29T13:25Z.

Estimated speed: ~1336 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 58 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -75/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.4 flare with ID 2020-11-29T12:34:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2020-11-30T04:26:00-SEP-001 (see notification(s) 20201130-AL-001, 20201130-AL-002).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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