CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-11-29T13:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-11-29T13:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16156/-1
CME Note: An eruption from the active region beyond the southeastern limb of the Earth-facing disk resulted in a M4.4 flare that peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z. This eruption resulted in a CME in the SE of STEREO-A COR2A (partial halo) and in the east of SOHO C2 starting around 2020-11-29T13:24Z; the CME front can later be seen in SOHO C3 at 2020-11-29T13:30Z. (NOTE: The time of this CME has been updated to 2020-11-29T13:24Z as that is the first available image the CME is seen in STEREO-A COR2; the originally input time was 2020-11-29T13:00Z.) Lan Jian - I think there may be a shock near 21UT on Dec 1. DSCOVR data show sharp increases of Np, V, and Tp at the time. After the shock, there seems to be some smooth magnetic field rotations during about 02-20 UT on Dec 2. However, the peak total field strength is only about 7 nT, quite weak. The Bz south reaches only about 3 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-01T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-02T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:
## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (Mars, OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2020-11-30T21:35:44Z
## Message ID: 20201130-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20201129-AL-001).  Based on preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Mars, OSIRIS-REx, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A.  The leading edge of the CME will reach Mars at 2020-12-02T22:37Z, OSIRIS-REx at 2020-11-30T19:37Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2020-11-30T19:37Z, and STEREO A at 2020-12-01T09:46Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may have a possible glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth.  Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2020-12-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 2-4 (below minor).  
   

Updated CME parameters are (event upgraded/downgraded to O-type):

Start time of the event: 2020-11-29T13:25Z.

Estimated speed: ~1336 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 58 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -75/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME(s): 2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20201129_160000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2020-11-29T13:25:00-CME-001) is associated with M4.4 flare with ID 2020-11-29T12:34:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z and SEP at STEREO A with ID 2020-11-30T04:26:00-SEP-001 (see notification(s) 20201130-AL-001, 20201130-AL-002).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s
http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/score


NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC, http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov ) Disclaimer

Data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either expressed, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty that the data and/or information will conform to specifications, any implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or freedom from infringement, any warranty that the information will be error free, or any warranty that documentation, if provided, will conform to the data and/or information. In no event shall the United States Government, or its contractors or subcontractors, be liable for any damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, arising out of, resulting from, or in any way connected with this information, whether or not based upon warranty, contract, tort, or otherwise, whether or not injury was sustained by persons or property or otherwise, and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of the results of, or use of, the data and/or information. The United States Government disclaims all warranties and liabilities regarding third party data and/or information, if present in the data and/or information generated and / or compiled by the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center, and distributes it "as is".

Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute an endorsement by NASA of any test results, resulting designs, hardware, or other matters. Use of data and/or information from the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center/Space Weather Research Center does not, in any manner, constitute the grant of a license to RECIPIENT under any NASA copyright, patent, patent application or other intellectual property.

The terms of this disclaimer shall be construed, and the legal relations between the parties hereto shall be determined, in accordance with United States federal law.

For questions, comments, requests etc. contact: GSFC-Space-Weather-Center (gsfc-swrc@mail.nasa.gov)

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (http://swpc.noaa.gov) is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 23.42 hour(s)
Difference: -5.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2020-11-30T21:35Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement